Warren & Harris Rise Amid Democratic Discontent
But who do younger, Black and Progressive voters really like enough vs. Trump?
|the b|e note||Jul 15, 2019|
With the 2020 Democratic presidential primary field still crowded, there is much more visible discontent from the party’s progressive wing. That was showing considerably during the recent Netroots Nation conference in Philadelphia last week, with fissures between Democratic leaders (primarily House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)) and four very vocal and increasingly influential Democratic Congresswomen “of color” - including Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), Ilhan Omar (D-MN), Rashia Tlaib (D-MI) and Ayanna Pressley (D-MA). Worries abound among Democratic leadership as to what that will mean for the upcoming 2020 primary and how it will translate in the general election. Could there be another 2016 scenario in which blocks of jaded (and many younger) Progressive voters have no enthusiasm for the nominee and decide to stay put out of protest? Who is the nominee they really want? Meanwhile, Joe Biden continues to gradually drop in the polling averages, but he has yet to fall below 30 percent (on average, that is) and he’s still commanding over a quarter of the primary electorate - Kamala Harris is benefiting from that drop, as some voters try to decide if she’s the new establishment candidate. Bernie Sanders is just steady at 19 percent. There’s some talk about Elizabeth Warren on the rise as she generates more interest and small dollar donors, but she’s behind Kamala Harris and even more so in the early primary states according to Morning Consult. What is somewhat clear is Warren and Sanders fighting for the same fields of support. That continues to work towards Biden’s advantage, for now. Survival in the primary, for now, is all about maintaining a pace. On another note, there are a Independents are the most unhappy with the state of the economy, while a large number of them are neither happy or unhappy - indeed, they feel the most unhappy or skeptical about the economy’s condition compared to any other partisan grouping.
In the YouGov breakdown below, some notable data:
Despite the fallout from the first set of Democratic debates, Biden still maintains a comfortable lead with Black voters and Latino voters, too. Sanders is a distant second with Black voters; Harris a very distant third and she actually leads among White voters.
Some other data that don’t look good for Democrats …
Black voters are, considerably, the least satisfied with Democratic primary choices among various racial demographics
Black voters are more concerned with a candidate representing their policy positions than they are with winning the election; so, too, are young voters
A significant number of 18-29 year olds, Black and Latino voters are saying they aren’t voting or the more evasive “it depends.”
Morning Consult (July 9)
RealClearPolitics (July 14)
FiveThirtyEight (June 27 - July 2)
FiveThirtyEight Endorsements (as of July 12)
YouGov (July 7 - July 9)
This week’s average: 43.45% (+0.3)
Previous week’s average: 43.15%
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