The Beginnings of Endings For Some

Watching the polls is just for fun now - but, wait till after the first debates

Publisher’s Riff
Image result for elizabeth warren

a weekly B|E Note Feature | @strategybe

With the Democratic National Committee announcing the first official debates of the crowded 2020 Democratic primary pack, we could be seeing the first real casualties or dropouts from that field within the next few weeks. It all depends on the debate performances in Miami on June 26th - 27th: who gaffes, who is perceived as sloppy in their performance, who is perceived as too clumsy or somewhat unintelligible or bumbling and bantering will quickly winnow down the field. This will start to shake it out. The numbers presented in this weekly assessment may change very dramatically overnight, and it may be the beginning of a much sharper and more intense field. Meanwhile, chatter increases about the quiet and once impropable rise of Elizabeth Warren - one takeaway: she’s definitely not a Hillary Clinton. But, questions persist around whether she’s really all that “electable” - which, translated, means: can she take on old White men and will men who didn’t vote for Clinton in 2016 do the same with an Elizabeth Warren potentially as a nominee in 2020. Still, Warren’s impressive resonance with certain parts of the electorate is at a point where even Bernie Sanders is underwhelming many progressives. Does this work for Warren? Or: does it really work, more so, for Biden? And: where does she sit with Black voters? More on that last question below. Also: a week of “troubling” hypothetical match-up numbers for Trump, but with the General Election some 17 months away, B|E Note is still not buying the “Trump is Done” hype … ‘cuz that’s what they said last time (here’s the last weely assessment (sorry for the hiatus, fam) for some comparison) …

Overall Field

Morning Consult (June 3-9)

RealClearPolitics (June 1-11)

FiveThirtyEight (June 1-11)

FiveThirtyEight (Top Endorsements)

Electoral College (Consensus)

Average …

Democrats = 230 v. Republicans = 212

270toWin

ElectoralVoteMap

(Insert Here) v. Trump

Quinnipiac (June 11)

EPIC-MRA (June 14)

YouGov (June 11)

Impeach or Not

Quinnipiac (June 12)

Key Demographics

Economist/YouGov

Trump Approvals

This week’s average: 43.25(+1.1)

Previous week’s average: 42.15%

FiveThirtyEight

RealClearPolitics


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