How Many Candidates Does it Take to Screw a Primary?

Meanwhile, Hypotheticals in Pennsylvania Show Biden Besting Trump in 2020 Matchup

Publisher’s Composition

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Image result for bill de blasio enters race

A weekly B|E Note Feature | @strategybe

As New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio entered the race, one couldn’t help but hear the collective sighs and groans of rank and file Democrats worried that their presidential primary was becoming way too crowded. The worry? A crowded primary not only risks Democrats draining needed resources and energy from the really important General Election of 2020, but the potential that it gets more caustic could irreparably damage the eventual nominee and offer President Trump an opportunity to control more narrative about that nominee. Yet, even as de Blasio made his announcement, without barely a half-day’s fanfare, it’s not clear that’s changing anything in this primary. Biden still maintains a sizable lead over the pack while looking solid in early primary states as he pushed an American unity message in Philly over the weekend. Meanwhile, recent polling shows Biden starting off his first weeks of official campaigning with a massive lead over Trump in the key bellwether state of Pennsylvania - the most crucial Electoral College pick-up for Democrats if they are to ever realize a win in 2020 (all of this to the previous week ) …

Overall Polling

Morning Consult

RealClearPolitics

FiveThirtyEight (Top Polls)

FiveThirtyEight (Top Endorsements)

… vs. Trump (PA)

Quinnipiac University

Key Demographics

Economist/YouGov

Trump Approvals

This week’s average: 42.4% (-1.35)

Last week’s average: 43.75%

FiveThirtyEight

RealClearPolitics


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