Battling For Third Place

Biden just maintains leg room; Harris never figured out what to do with Warren

Publisher’s Riff
Image result for warren harris buttigieg

A weekly B|E Note Feature | @strategybe

It will be a very busy summer for Democratic presidential primary candidates as they’ll scramble to find more donors allowing them to meet a sudden 130,000 donor-threshold rule set this week by the Democratic National Committee. That move sharpens the field and is yet another way to crystallize the top and bottom tiers of the crowded field. Meanwhile, Joe Biden still - at least on paper - has plenty of polling leg room while losing a point here and there, which could explain why we’re not hearing much from him at the moment (although racial questions continue to pester his image and campaign. But, for now, he’s not appearing worried). Bernie Sanders is attempting a resurgence, but remains flat for now. The real battle is for third place position between Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg. Warren is winning that fight. It is intensifying, but - fortunately for Democrats - it didn’t explode into a personal war between the campaigns, just competing public attempts at showing the Democratic electorate who can hit Republicans and Trump the hardest. Harris has lost ground, never preparing for the rise of Warren and unable to make any connection on any level with Sanders’ supporters. Buttigieg has managed to create some distance ahead of Beto O’Rourke. Meanwhile, don’t let the “disapprovals” fool you: Trump approvals are steady in the three key battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (here’s the previous week for some comparison) …

Overall Polling

Morning Consult

RealClearPolitics

FiveThirtyEight (Top Polls)

FiveThirtyEight (Top Endorsements)

Trump Battleground Approvals (MI, PA, WI)

Morning Consult

Key Demographics

Economist/YouGov

Black Americans favor Joe Biden while Elizabeth Warren leads among liberals and Bernie Sanders is popular among men

Trump Approvals

This week’s average: 42.15% (-0.15)

Last week’s average: 42%

FiveThirtyEight

RealClearPolitics


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